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☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Sunrun, Costco, Arm, Fox, Robinhood, Airbnb & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Here are Thursday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Goldman Sachs reiterates Sunrun as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating following earnings on Wednesday. " JPMorgan reiterates SolarEdge as overweight JPMorgan said it's sticking with its overweight rating following earnings on Wednesday. " Citi reiterates Airbnb as buy Citi said it's standing by its buy rating on shares of Airbnb following earnings on Wednesday. JPMorgan reiterates Instacart as overweight JPMorgan said it's sticking with its overweight rating on shares of Instacart following earnings on Wednesday. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America said it's sticking with its buy rating following data showing App Store strength.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sunrun, Goldman, JPMorgan, SEDG, Shopify, Redburn, Mizuho, Robinhood, Airbnb, Davidson downgrades TripAdvisor, Raymond James, Fox, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, EVGO, it's, Wolfe, Skyworks, SWKS, we're Organizations: JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Holdings, Deutsche Bank, Emerson, Deutsche, Citi, Bank of America, Fox, of America, Solutions, Barclays, UBS, Costco, Apple Locations: EBITDA

☆ Trading CPI: How the stock market could react to Wednesday's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Given this, JPMorgan projected how the S & P 500 could trade on the basis of the core CPI reading, breaking out five possible scenarios. If the S & P 500 falls by more than 2%, it would be the first such decline in more than a year, since February 2023, the note read. "The ultimate outcome may be a removal of all 2024 rate cut expectations with increased implied probability of rate hikes," JPMorgan said. JPMorgan anticipates the S & P 500 could either advance a quarter percentage point, or lose as much as 1%. 2.5% chance below 0.10% — A downside surprise in core inflation could spark a rally in the S & P 500 in the range of 1.5% and 2%.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Core CPI

☆ Where do Treasury yields go from here? Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron weighs in
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Treasury yields shot up last year, and investors flocked to allocating to cash which have yielded around 5% or even more. Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Jim Caron believes the 10-year Treasury yield is very likely to hover between 5% and 5.5%. Caron, who is chief investment officer at its Portfolio Solutions Group, explained that historically, 10-year Treasury yields are "usually a good match" for nominal gross domestic product. How rising yields affect stocks But are rising yields bad for stocks, as commonly thought? "If yields are rising because the economy is running hot, and data and labor markets are stronger, the rising yields need not negatively affect stocks."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron, Caron, CNBC's Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal, Morgan, Morgan Stanley Investment, Solutions Locations: U.S

☆ Here are Friday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Coinbase, Amazon, Alphabet, Pinterest, Snap & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Oppenheimer reiterates Apple as outperform Oppenheimer said it's bullish on Apple's future in gaming. Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy Bank of America raised its price target on the stock to $175 per share from $166. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating Apple. Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy Bank of America said Amazon is "well positioned." RBC downgrades Northrop Grumman to sector perform from outperform RBC downgraded the stock after its earnings earnings and says upside is limited.

Persons: Oppenheimer, it's, Tesla, TD Cowen, Needham, headwinds, JPMorgan downgrades Dow, Piper Sandler, Piper, UBS downgrades Archer, Daniels, Northrop, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jabil, Wedbush, Evercore Organizations: Seagate, Apple, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Airlines, American Airlines Group, UBS, Humana, Intel, SEC, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, SNAP, Bancorp, Daniels Midland, Price Target, RBC Locations: Mexico

☆ The Fed will likely cut interest rates 4 times next year as the economy remains resilient
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US economic growth will remain resilient next year, making the Fed cautious about rate cuts, Barclays said. The central bank will likely cut by 100 basis points in 2024 and another 100 points in 2025. AdvertisementUS economy will remain resilient next year, making the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, Barclays said in a Monday note. AdvertisementThat implies the Fed will make four 25-basis-point rate cuts next year. Meanwhile, analysts at ING have predicted the Fed will deliver six rate cuts next year as the economy slows, amounting to 150 basis points.

Persons: —, they're Organizations: Barclays, Service, Federal Reserve, ING, UBS, White House, Congress

☆ There are 2 factors that may be driving bond yields more than Fed meetings, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.

Persons: —, Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department

☆ Yen languishes as focus turns to Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the dollar, the yen fell about 1.7% overnight, touching a low of 151.74 — a whisker from the 151.94 level that prompted intervention a year ago. In the U.S. data showed wages and salaries rose solidly last quarter and while consumer confidence ebbed, it fell far less than markets had expected. The euro declined 0.4% on the dollar overnight and nursed losses at $1.0579. China's Caixin PMI data will be in focus later on Wednesday, ahead of U.S. manufacturing and private payrolls figures — before the Fed meeting. U.S. yields rose in early Asia trade, while Japanese yields fell slightly on thin volumes, leaving the spread between benchmark 10-year rates at 398 bps.

Persons: Alan Ruskin, Sterling, James Malcolm, 10bp Organizations: Resona Bank, U.S, Federal Reserve, U.S . Treasury, New Zealand, The Bank of, Deutsche Bank, UBS Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, The, The Bank of Japan, U.S, London

The central bank left interest rates unchanged from its September meeting, but its formal statement acknowledged that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In its last statement in September, it referred to the economy’s “solid” pace. But the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell made sure that the lack of action Wednesday does not mean that rates could be raised should incoming data show the economy is remaining strong. And the Fed says it remains committed to bringing annual inflation down to its target level of 2%. “As of Oct 31, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates above 4.5% through the end of 2024. But we think that interest rates could go much lower,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategy analyst at Russell Investments.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, We’re, ” Powell, “ We’re, It’s, ”, Neel Mukherjee, Subadra Rajappa, BeiChen Lin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, Societe Generale, Russell Investments Locations: TIAA, 10y

☆ Morning Bid: Markets hold their nerve amid Mid East trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oct 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Most talk is it will stay on hold this time, but will discuss laying the groundwork for an eventual shift. Any tweak would see Japanese yields rise and add to the pain being felt in the Treasury market, where 10-year yields nudged up to 4.87% on Monday with scant sign of any safe haven bid. Analysts at NatWest Markets expect $885 billion of marketable borrowing in Q4 and $700 billion in Q1. It is also notable that the borrowing kept climbing even though the economy surprised everyone with its strength.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Eli Lilly, Luis de Guindos, Erik Thedéen, Muralikumar Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Ichi, Insurance, Reuters, Treasury, NatWest Markets, Federal Reserve, Apple, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Gaza, China

☆ Breaking down the complicated and erratic relationship between stocks and bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

At Friday's close of 4224 on Friday, the S & P 500 is off 8% from the July high, with its equal-weighted version down 11%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Yet the S & P was also at about the current level on Sept. 22, when the 10-year was a half-percentage-point lower, as well as on June 2, when it was at 3.7%. It's taken as a given in most corners of the investment business that higher rates available on bonds serve mechanically to compress equity valuations. Which is how the stock market finds itself here, with real or incipient breakdowns in regional banks and transportation stocks, the median S & P 500 component down for the year. The S & P 500 has gone on to drop a bit further, rally weakly and then roll back toward a five-month low.

Persons: James Carville, Bill Clinton, Stocks, it's, It's, Savita Subramanian, Jay Powell, LEI, Bond Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Group, Bloomberg News Locations: Friday's, corporates, Israel

☆ Bond yields could hit 6% as the Fed is going to keep hiking rates until something breaks, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key bond yields are likely headed to 6% as the Fed will keep hiking interest rates, TS Lombard said. That's due to recent robust economic data, which could influence the Fed to take interest rates higher. Higher rates risk sparking a recession, especially considering interest rates are already higher than Fed officials think, Blitz said. Markets have panicked in recent weeks as investors try to adjust to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury just rose to their highest level since 2007, briefly touching 4.8% on Friday.

Persons: Lombard, —, Steven Blitz Organizations: stoke, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Lombard, Investors, —

☆ 'We are becoming more convinced that the cracks are emerging': JPMorgan warns a host of recession risks are starting to pile up — and shares 2 trades to keep your portfolio safe
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).

Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect

☆ Trading CPI: What JPMorgan traders see the market doing, based on these possible outcomes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

45% probability — CPI rises by the consensus 0.2% estimate: Traders at JPMorgan think this is the most likely outcome, predicting the S & P 500 will add 0.25% to 0.5%. 22.5% probability — CPI increases 0.2% to 0.4%: A slight increase to the consensus estimate would see the S & P 500 shed between 1% and 1.5%, according to traders at JPMorgan. 5% probability — CPI climbs 0.4% or more: This scenario would be the culmination of both higher-than-expected auto prices and core inflation, the traders added. Under this outcome, the S & P 500 would fall 1.75% to 2%. 2.5% probability — CPI below 0.1%: The S & P 500 would climb 1.5% to 2% under this scenario.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jackson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow, Traders, JPMorgan, Goods Locations: China

☆ Here's why the market is ignoring a tell-tale sign that a recession is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For just shy of a year now, the bond market has been signaling that a recession is on the horizon. And for the better part of the past six months, the stock market has been ignoring it. "The market's certainly not acting like it would if this 'Waiting for Godot' recession was right around the corner. "I would say it's much more about what started this conundrum, the combination of pandemic policy, pandemic reopening and hyperaggressive monetary policy. A key narrative from those looking for recession is the lag effects that Fed policy will have.

Persons: Godot, Hogan, Nicholas Colas, Colas, There's, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel Organizations: Riley Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Fed, DataTrek Research, Wharton Business Locations: It's, U.S

☆ Dollar drifts as traders weigh rate path; yen fragile
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In an action-packed week of central bank decisions, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but hinted that further hikes were on the way to tame inflation. Investors, though, expect the central bank to be done with its tightening in July. On Monday, the yen touched a near seven-month low of 141.98 per dollar, having slid 1% on Friday. The yen also touched a fresh 15-year low against the euro of 155.32. The Australian dollar fell 0.32% to $0.686, while the kiwi eased 0.26% to $0.622.

Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Mansoor Mohi, uddin, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of, Investors, Investor, Citi, Bank of Singapore, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Bank of Japan, Bannockburn, New York, Singapore

☆ Euro area bond yields tumble as SVB collapse scares investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

March 13 (Reuters) - Government bond yields fell on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets while assessing the possible fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse amid bets on less aggressive tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters. European stocks fell on Monday and were on course for their worst day in almost three months, as the region's banking shares continued to tumble. Fed funds futures showed traders scaled back their projections for the Fed's next rate rise, but markets still bet on a less than 50% chance of a 25 bps rate hike next week. ESTR forwards currently imply an 80% chance of a 50 bps rate hike next week.

☆ The stock market passed a key test in the charts, but another threat looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield below the psychological 4% level, stocks have been able to advance. At the same time, the S & P 500 was at risk of breaking below its 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator. The 200-day is around 3,940, and the S & P 500 was trading comfortably above the key 4,000, at about 4,070 in late morning trading. The S & P touched a low 3,491.58 in October. But Krinsky said it is possible the S & P 500 could still break its lows.

☆ Bond yields are close to a major psychological level that could really spook the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering close to a key level that strategists say could give stock investors a fright. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through resistance in recent sessions and is now a hair below the important 4% level. It's very much an inverse relationship between yields and the stock market," said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. "That does suggest 4%, which is not a resistance level, but it's certainly a psychological level...It impacts people for nothing more than it's a round number. After the October high, Stockton said the next big level on the 10-year yield chart would be about 5.25%, a resistance level established in 2006.

ORLANDO, Fla., Nov 6 (Reuters) - Hedge funds have given up the ghost on a Fed pivot coming any time soon. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and rates, yields fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall. The two-year yield on Friday hit a fresh 15-year high of 4.80%, up a staggering 80 basis points from a month earlier. They upped their end-2022 two-year Treasury yield forecast by 20 bps to 4.90%.

☆ Euro zone yields fall from multi-year highs tracking UK gilts
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sept 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs fell on Wednesday, tracking moves in British gilts, after hitting multi-year highs amid monetary tightening expectations and concerns about potentially growing bond supply due to more public spending. The euro area bond market has recently trailed yields in British gilts, which recorded their sharpest rise in decades in response to new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's tax cuts and borrowing plans. The German yield curve steepened after being close to inversion last week, with the gap between 2- and 10-year yields hitting an almost 3-week high of 42.7 bps. The jump of yields in British gilts also widened yield spreads between core and peripheral government bonds. gilt&spreadItaly's 10-year bond yield was down 13 bps to 4.6%, after hitting its highest since February 2013 at 4.927%, with the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields tightening to 243 bps.

☆ Bank analysts have two big reasons to be bullish on the Singapore dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Why bet on the Singapore dollar? "I believe that investors also associate the strong [Singapore dollar] with Singapore's competence and reliability, as a partner and gateway to the region," Wee said. The Singapore dollar is not as widely traded as currencies of larger economies, Maybank's Supaat pointed out. The Singapore currency is not immune to the strength of the U.S. dollar either, said Wee, who warned that the Singapore dollar could lose its footing as Asia's outperformer should there be a global recession. "This is the main risk, or chief risk, for investors seeking [the Singapore dollar] as a haven," Wee added.

☆ Stifel's stock chief shares 4 places to put your money now as an 'immediate window' for returns opens up while stocks hit a near-term bottom
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He said the S&P 500 would climb back to 4,400 by early next year. He said he thinks the S&P 500 will rally back to 4,400, which is about 19% upside from where it closed on Friday. StifelProvided that inflation continues to meaningfully drop, so too will yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, Bannister said. When 10-year TIPS yields and 36-month fed funds futures fall, the S&P 500 tend to rise. Longer-term, the S&P 500 is likely to remain range-bound below 4,800 through the rest of the decade, he said.

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